Ch. 4- Multiway Markets

Multiway markets in sports betting offer a broader range of options compared to traditional win/loss bets. These markets provide various potential outcomes for an event, allowing bettors to explore more complex and potentially lucrative betting opportunities. By understanding and effectively navigating multiway markets, you can enhance your betting strategy and increase your chances of finding value.

What Are Multiway Markets?

Multiway markets present multiple potential outcomes for a single event, beyond the usual win/loss options. They might include exact score predictions, specific player performances, or other detailed results. This expanded range of betting options can create opportunities to find value where the odds may be mispriced.

Examples of Multiway Markets:

• Football (Soccer) Match Result: Win, Draw, or Loss (3-way market)

• Correct Score: Specific predictions like 1-0, 2-1, or 0-0

• Top Goal Scorer: Various players with odds for each being the highest scorer

• Horse Racing: Multiple horses with individual odds for each to win

Why Multiway Markets Matter

Multiway markets can offer significant value due to their complexity. Bookmakers might struggle to price each outcome accurately, especially in less popular or niche markets. This can lead to opportunities for savvy bettors to identify and exploit mispriced odds.

Example:
In a football match, if the odds for a draw are higher than what you believe they should be based on your analysis, this might represent a value bet. For instance, if a match between two evenly matched teams is priced with a high draw rate, but your analysis suggests the likelihood of a draw is undervalued, you could place a profitable bet on the draw.

Key Considerations in Multiway Markets

1. Implied Probability
   Understanding implied probability is crucial for evaluating multiway markets. The total implied probability for all outcomes in a market usually exceeds 100% due to the bookmaker’s margin. Comparing this with your own assessment can help you spot value.

   Example:
   Consider a tennis match with these odds:

   • Player A wins 2-0: 2.50 (implied probability: 40%)

   • Player B wins 2-0: 3.00 (implied probability: 33.33%)

   • Either player wins 2-1: 2.75 (implied probability: 36.36%)

   The total implied probability is 109.69% (40% + 33.33% + 36.36%). If you believe Player B winning 2-0 is more likely than the bookmaker suggests, this could be a value bet.

2. Hedging and Arbitrage
   Multiway markets can present opportunities for hedging or arbitrage. By betting on all possible outcomes, you can guarantee a profit if the odds are correctly calculated.

   Example:
   In a horse race with three horses, if the odds are:

   • Horse A: 4.00

   • Horse B: 3.50

   • Horse C: 3.75

   Placing a $100 bet on each horse ensures a profit because each potential payout exceeds the total amount bet, providing an arbitrage opportunity.

3. Market Dynamics
   Odds in multiway markets are influenced by public sentiment, news, and betting volume. Recognising how these factors affect the odds can help you make more informed decisions.

   Example:
   During the pandemic, I focused on niche sports and followed team news closely. My most successful strategy involved spotting valuable bets before the market adjusted. For example, when three key players from an underdog team fell ill, the odds for the favourites dropped sharply from $1.75 to $1.05.

   • $1.75 Odds: Break-Even Percentage = (1 / 1.75) × 100 ≈ 57.14%

   • $1.05 Odds: Break-Even Percentage = (1 / 1.05) × 100 ≈ 95.24%

   Choosing niche sports gives you more time to react before the market adjusts, compared to high-profile events like the Super Bowl, where the market adjusts much quicker.

4. Specialisation
   Specialising in specific multiway markets can provide a deeper understanding and enable you to spot value more effectively. By focusing on a niche area, you can develop expertise and enhance your betting strategy.

   Example:
   If you specialise in correct score betting for soccer and notice a trend where a defensive team frequently wins 1-0, you can identify when the odds for this scoreline are favourable compared to its likelihood.

Conclusion

Mastering multiway markets can significantly enhance your betting strategy. By understanding implied probabilities, leveraging hedging and arbitrage opportunities, and staying informed about market dynamics, you can uncover valuable betting opportunities. Specialising in specific markets can further improve your chances of long-term success.

In the next chapter, we will explore parlays—combining multiple bets into one for potentially greater rewards. Let’s dive into how you can maximise your betting opportunities with parlays!