Chapter 9 - In-Play/Live Betting
In-play or live betting has transformed the sports betting world by enabling you to place bets during the course of an event. This dynamic form of betting allows you to make decisions based on real-time developments, offering a more engaging and responsive betting experience.
Understanding In-Play/Live Betting
Live betting allows you to place wagers on various outcomes while an event is happening, with odds that adjust based on the current state of play. You can bet on a range of scenarios, such as in golf:
Who will win the next hole?
The total number of birdies made in a round.
Which player will score the next eagle?
Example:
Imagine you’re watching the final round of a men’s golf tournament, like The Masters Tournament, featuring top golfers such as Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas. As the round progresses, you observe McIlroy struggling with his putting while Thomas gains momentum with several birdies.
With live betting, you might choose to place a bet on Thomas to win the tournament if his odds are more favourable due to his strong performance.
Strategies for In-Play Betting
1. Watch the Event Live
To maximise the value of live betting, watching the event live is crucial. This allows you to:
✅ Assess player form.
✅ Adapt to game dynamics.
✅ Spot profitable betting opportunities.
For example, if McIlroy is having an off day and you notice that Thomas is making consistent birdies, you can take advantage of this information to place a bet on Thomas before the odds adjust.
2. Identify Market Inefficiencies
Odds can fluctuate rapidly during live betting, sometimes leading to inefficiencies. If Thomas’s odds for winning the tournament are better than expected due to a temporary dip in McIlroy’s performance, this could present a valuable betting opportunity.
3. Hedging and Arbitrage
Live betting also allows for hedging strategies. If you initially bet on McIlroy to win the tournament and he starts performing poorly, you can:
🔹 Place a counter-bet on Thomas to limit losses or lock in a profit.
🔹 Adjust your betting position based on real-time performance shifts.
4. Live Prop Bets
Many sportsbooks offer live prop bets, such as:
The number of birdies made by a player in the remaining holes.
The total score of a round.
In niche sports or smaller tournaments, some bookmakers may not adjust prop bet odds frequently.
📌 Example: If players are making more birdies on south-facing holes due to favourable wind conditions, some sportsbooks might not update their odds immediately. Since many bookmakers rely on long-term statistics rather than real-time conditions, this creates opportunities to exploit delayed odds updates.
The Rise of Live Payouts
Many sportsbooks now offer live payouts, enabling you to cash out your bet before the event concludes. However:
⚠️ Live payouts often come with significant spreads.
✅ In most cases, letting your bet run is mathematically the better option.
Conclusion
In-play or live betting offers an exciting way to engage with sports events and capitalise on shifting odds. By:
✅ Closely following the event.
✅ Identifying market inefficiencies.
✅ Using strategies like hedging and live props.
You can enhance your betting strategy and find +EV opportunities in live markets.
📌 Up Next: Curious about how to ensure you’re always getting the best price for your bets? In the next chapter and the beginning of Part 2 of our course - The Logic of Sports Betting, we’ll dive into the importance of betting the best price and how it impacts your long-term success in sports betting.
